Journal of Clinical Medicine Research, ISSN 1918-3003 print, 1918-3011 online, Open Access
Article copyright, the authors; Journal compilation copyright, J Clin Med Res and Elmer Press Inc
Journal website http://www.jocmr.org

Original Article

Volume 10, Number 2, February 2018, pages 88-105


A Multiple Treatment Comparison of Eleven Disease-Modifying Drugs Used for Multiple Sclerosis

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1. Flowchart of identification and selection of documentation. SR: systematic review; HTA: health technology assessment; RCT: randomized controlled trial.
Figure 2.
Figure 2. Evidence network for annualised relapse rate.
Figure 3.
Figure 3. Evidence network for disability progression.
Figure 4.
Figure 4. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (all interventions except alemtuzumab). WTP: willingness-to-pay.
Figure 5.
Figure 5. Scatter plot for 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations (all interventions included). Simulations for alemtuzumab show that alemtuzumab was more effective and less costly relative to other treatments.

Tables

Table 1. Overview of Included Interventions
 
InterventionsAdministration form and recommended dose
mg: milligram; IV: intravenous; h: hour; mL: millilitre; μg: microgram; IU: International Units; IM: intra muscular.
Alemtuzumab (Lemtrada)12 mg concentrate for solution for infusion
12 mg/day for 5 consecutive days, then after 12 months: 12 mg/day for 3 consecutive days. Diluted and IV over approximately 4 h
Dimethyl fumarate (Tecfidera)120 or 240 mg gastro-resistant hard capsules
240 mg twice daily
Fingolimod (Gilenya)0.5 mg hard capsules
0.5 mg once daily
Glatiramer acetat (Copaxone)20 mg/mL solution for injection, pre-filled syringe
20 mg of glatiramer acetate (one pre-filled syringe), administered as a subcutaneous injection once daily
40 mg of glatiramer acetate administered three times weekly
Interferon beta-1a (Avonex)30 µg (6 million IU) powder and solvent for solution for injection
30 µg (1 mL solution), by intramuscular (IM) injection once a week
Interferon beta-1a (Rebif)22 µg (6 million IU) solution for injection in pre-filled syringe
44 µg given three times per week by subcutaneous injection
Peg-interferon beta-1a (Plegridy)125 µg injected subcutaneously every 2 weeks
Interferon beta-1b (Betaferon)250 µg (8.0 million IU)/mL, powder and solvent for solution for injection (300 µg (9.6 million IU) per vial)
250 µg (8.0 million IU), contained in 1 mL of the reconstituted solution, to be injected subcutaneously every other day
Interferon beta-1b (Extavia)See: interferon beta-1b (Betaferon) above
Natalizumab (Tysabri)300 mg concentrate for solution for infusion
300 mg by IV over approximately 1 h, once every 4 weeks
Teriflunomide (Aubagio)14 mg film-coated tablets
14 mg once daily, swallowed whole with some water

 

Table 2. Key Parameters Used in the Base-Case Analysis
 
DefinitionValueSource/note
EDSS: expanded disability status scale; SPMS: secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis; RR: relative risk; CI: confidence interval; SE: standard error; PML: progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. aFor the other probabilities used in the model, see Supplementary materials 4 and 5 (www.jocmr.org). bPer person-year. cGlatiramer acetate 40 mg RR: 0.66 (0.52 to 0.82). dWe did not find any documentation for glatiramer acetate 40 mg. eThe majority of patients receiving alemtuzumab would not need new treatment after 5 years treatment. It was assumed that 20% of patients need extra treatment (12 mg/day for 3 days) [29]. fGlatiramer acetate 40 mg/mL three times per week: Annual drug cost was estimated to be EUR 9,732. gWe used the price for the products (pre-filled syringe and auto-injector pen) that had 85% of Rebif 44- market in the recent years in Norway (2013 - 2015). hIt was assumed that the average length of mild or moderate relapse and severe relapse would be 45 and 90 days, respectively [24, 25]. iAll costs were updated to 2015 costs. jAssumed fixed utility decrement over the corresponding RRMS EDSS state utility values. kIt was estimated based on the data reported by Orme et al [27] and Prosser et al [25].
Transition probabilitiesaEDSS scoreProgression rates within RRMS health statesb (variance)Progression rates from RRMS to SPMSb (variance)Progression rates within SPMS health statesb (variance)[23, 24]
00.144 (0.00007)0.004 (0.000002)
10.075 (0.00003)0.002 (0.000001)
20.152 (0.00006)0.029 (0.000012)0.370 (0.00370)
30.272 (0.00025)0.102 (0.000094)0.385 (0.00129)
40.450 (0.00166)0.199 (0.000735)0.594 (0.00280)
50.485 (0.00213)0.256 (0.001126)0.349 (0.00088)
60.283 (0.00104)0.184 (0.000676)0.241 (0.00029)
70.342 (0.00450)0.237 (0.000312)0.186 (0.00024)
80.105 (0.00139)0.066 (0.000866)0.107 (0.00015)
90.167 (0.02778)0.167 (0.027778)0.093 (0.00038)
Efficacy estimate (Mot placebo)InterventionsRR of annual relapse rate (95% CI)RR of disability progression (95% CI)Based on the results of our systematic review (Table 3)
Alemtuzumab 12 mg (Lemtrada)0.29 (0.23 - 0.35)0.36 (0.16 - 0.74)
Dimethyl fumarate 240 mg (Tecifidera)0.50 (0.42 - 0.60)0.65 (0.49 - 0.85)
Fingolimod 0.5 mg (Gilenya)0.46 (0.39 - 0.54)0.71 (0.55 - 0.90)
Glatiramer acetate 20 mg (Copaxone)0.65 (0.59 - 0.73)c0.78 (0.63 - 0.96)d
Interferon beta-1a 30 µg (Avonex)0.82 (0.73 - 0.91)0.80 (0.65 - 0.99)
Interferon beta-1a 22 µg (Rebif)0.69 (0.57 - 0.83)0.84 (0.61 - 1.19)
Interferon beta-1a 44 µg (Rebif)0.64 (0.56 - 0.72)0.77 (0.60 - 1.01)
Interferon beta-1b 250 µg (Betaferon)0.66 (0.57 - 0.76)0.72 (0.54 - 0.92)
Interferon beta-1b 250 µg (Extavia)0.66 (0.57 - 0.76)0.72 (0.54 - 0.92)
Natalizumab 300 mg (Tysabri)0.30 (0.24 - 0.36)0.59 (0.42 - 0.84)
Peg-interferon beta-1a 125 µg (Plegridy)0.65 (0.49 - 0.85)0.61 (0.36 - 0.98)
Teriflunomide 14 mg (Aubagio)0.67 (0.58 - 0.77)0.73 (0.51 - 1.05)
Costs per patients per year in EURi (EUR 1.00 ≈ NOK 8.9530)InterventionsAnnual drug costsBased on drug procurement cooperation price (LIS)
Alemtuzumab 12 mg (Lemtrada)e35,607 (5 days first year); 21,364 (3 days second year)
Dimethyl fumarate 240 mg (Tecifidera)18,839
Fingolimod 0.5 mg (Gilenya)22,023
Glatiramer acetate 20 mg (Copaxone)f9,759
Interferon beta-1a 30 µg (Avonex)11,648
Interferon beta-1a 22 µg (Rebif)10,204
Interferon beta-1a 44 µg (Rebif)g12,929
Interferon beta-1b 250 µg (Betaferon)7,407
Interferon beta-1b 250 µg (Extavia)6,709
Natalizumab 300 mg (Tysabri)21,428
Peg-interferon beta-1a 125 µg (Plegridy)12,808
Teriflunomide 14 mg (Aubagio)11,769
InterventionsMonitoring costsBased on drug procurement cooperation (LIS) and clinical expert opinion
1 year2 yearsBeyond 2 years
Alemtuzumabe (Lemtrada)2,5391,628928 (3 - 5 years)
790 (+5 years)
Dimethyl fumarate (Tecifidera)1,290790790
Fingolimod (Gilenya)2,001790790
Glatiramer acetate (Copaxone)1,290790790
Interferon beta-1a 30 µg (Avonex)2,1521,652790
Interferon beta-1a 22 µg (Rebif)2,1521,652790
Interferon beta-1a 44 µg (Rebif)2,1521,652790
Interferon beta-1b (Betaferon)2,1521,652790
Interferon beta-1b (Extavia)2,1521,652790
Natalizumab (Tysabri)3,7133,0973,097
Peg-interferon beta-1a (Plegridy)2,1521,652790
Teriflunomide (Aubagio)1,440840840
EDSS scoreCosts associated to different EDSS states[26]
02,016
14,122
25,730
314,090
416,481
536,830
663,099
776,982
8154,171
9155,661
Costs per relapseh
Mild/moderate2,447
Severe4,894
Utility weightHealth state/eventsUtility weight (95% CI)[27]
Disability associated with PML: [28]
EDSS 00.870 (0.782 to 0.958)
EDSS 10.799 (0.617 to 0.981)
EDSS 20.705 (0.523 to 0.886)
EDSS 30.574 (0.384 to 0.763)
EDSS 40.610 (0.428 to 0.791)
EDSS 50.518 (0.338 to 0.698)
EDSS 60.460 (0.0277 to 0.641)
EDSS 70.297 (0.112 to 0.481)
EDSS 8-0.049 (-0.235 to 0.138)
EDSS 9-0.195 (-0.428 to 0.039)
SPMSj-0.045 (-0.079 to -0.014)
Disutility associated with mild or moderate relapse-0.071 (-0.096 to -0.046)
Disutility associated with severe relapsek-0.236 (-0.295 to -0.174)
Disability associated with PML-0.40 (-0.30 to -0.50)

 

Table 3. Relative Risk for Annual Relapse and Disability Progression From Network Meta-Analysis
 
InterventionsAnnual relapseDisability progression
RR (95% CI)GRADERR (95% CI)GRADE
RR: relative ratio; CI: confidence interval; SC: subcutaneous; IM: intra muscular; q.d.: once daily, q.w.: once weekly; t.i.w.: three times weekly; 2.i.d: two times daily; t.i.d: three times daily; 1/2 w: once every 2 weeks; 1/4 w: once every 4 weeks; NA: not available.
Alemtuzumab 24 mg IV q.d.0.16 (0.1 to 0.25)Low0.40 (0.27 to 0.60)Low
Alemtuzumab 12 mg IV q.d.0.29 (0.23 to 0.35)High0.36 (0.16 to 0.74)Very low
Natalizumab0.3 (0.24 to 0.36)Moderate0.59 (0.42 to 0.84)Moderate
Fingolimod oral 1.25 mg0.45 (0.39 to 0.53)High0.71(0.56 to 0.90)High
Fingolimod oral 0.5 mg0.46 (0.39 to 0.54)High0.71 (0.55 to 0.90High
Dimethyl fumarate 240 mg 2.i.d.0.5 (0.42 to 0.6)High0.65 (0.49 to 0.85)High
Dimethyl fumarate 240 mg t.i.d.0.5 (0.42 to 0.6)High0.68 (0.52 to 0.89)High
Interferon beta-1b 500 µg SC 1/2 d0.62 (0.51 to 0.74)Moderate0.79 (0.56 to 1.10)Low
Interferon beta-1a 44 µg0.64 (0.56 to 0.72)High0.77 (0.60 to 1.01)Low
Peg-interferon beta-1a 125 µg 1/2 w0.65 (0.49 to 0.85)High0.61 (0.36 to 0.98)Low
Glatiramer acetate 20 mg0.65 (0.59 to 0.73)High0.78 (0.63 to 0.96)Low
Glatiramer acetate 40 mg0.66 (0.52 to 0.82)HighNANA
Interferon beta-1b 250 µg0.66 (0.57 to 0.76)Moderate0.2 (0.54 to 0.92)Low
Teriflunomide oral 14 mg0.67 (0.58 to 0.77)High0.73 (0.51 to 1.05)Low
Interferon beta-1a 22 µg0.69 (0.57 to 0.83)Moderate0.84 (0.61 to 1.19Low
Peg-interferon beta-1a 125 µg 1/4 w0.73 (0.56 to 0.95)High0.62 (0.38 to 1.01)Low
Teriflunomide oral 7 mg0.77 (0.68 to 0.9)High0.80 (0.55 to 1.13)Low
Interferon beta-1a 30 µg0.82 (0.73 to 0.91)High0.80 0.65 to 0.99)Moderate
Interferon beta-1a 60 µg IM q.w.0.86 (0.7 to 1.06)HighNANA

 

Table 4. Results of the Base-Case Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, Time-Horizon of 20 Years (All Interventions Included; Discounted)a
 
DrugsTotal costs (EUR)Effects (QALYs)Incremental cost (EUR)Incremental effect (QALYs)ICER (EUR/QALY)
QALY: quality-adjusted life year; ICER: incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. aThe results are rounded in accordance to the calculations in the probabilistic model, which operates with several decimals. bBased on the effect estimates and the annual drug costs, it is highly probable that glatiramer acetate 40 mg three times/week will be as cost-effective as glatiramer acetate 20 mg /day (given all the other parameters are the same).
Alemtuzumab (Lemtrada)547,0688.05Dominant
Interferon beta-1b (Extavia)673,6907.40126,622-0.64Dominated by alemtuzumab
Interferon beta-1b (Betaferon)680,0137.40132,945-0.64Dominated by alemtuzumab
Glatiramer acetate 20 mg (Copaxone)b698,5067.31151,438-0.73Dominated by alemtuzumab
Peg-interferon beta-1a (Plegridy)704,8577.56157,789-0.48Dominated by alemtuzumab
Teriflunomide (Aubagio)707,8627.38160,794-0.67Dominated by alemtuzumab
Interferon beta-1a 22 µg (Rebif)725,8547.21178,786-0.84Dominated by alemtuzumab
Interferon beta-1a 30 µg (Avonex)729,8027.27182,734-0.77Dominated by alemtuzumab
Interferon beta-1a 44 µg (Rebif)734,3477.32187,279-0.72Dominated by alemtuzumab
Dimethyl fumarate (Tecifidera)749,2227.52202,154-0.52Dominated by alemtuzumab
Natalizumab (Tysabri)779,9777.63232,909-0.41Dominated by alemtuzumab
Fingolimod (Gilenya)786,4647.43239,396-0.62Dominated by alemtuzumab